On November 24, PMCG led an online panel at the second in a series of Community of Practice in Public Financial Management (PFM) events entitled “How to Accelerate Recovery – Post Covid-19,” organized by the International Consortium on Governmental Financial Management (ICGFM).

We recently started working on a GIZ project designed to share experience and innovative solutions efficiently across regions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, so that cities in GIZ’s Connective Cities Network can better prepare for the effects of the pandemic. Moreover, it aims to boost the effectiveness of their responses to local outbreaks.

On November 16, Mr. Mikheil Janelidze, Senior Consultant in Foreign Trade Policy at PMCG, virtually opened the Central Asia Trade Forum (CATF) promoting regional trade and connectivity. The annual event, which is being held for the tenth time, runs until November 20 and is organized by USAID.

We are delighted to welcome Ms. Irina Tserodze to our team as a senior consultant in the field of education and skills development, bringing with her a proven track record of more than 15 years in the public and private sector.

The number of international visitors declined by 92.9% in October compared to the same period of 2019, and the number of international tourists fell by 90%. Georgia experienced a fall of at least 90% in the number of foreign arrivals every month since April 2020, compared to the corresponding period of 2019; The price changes in Adjara and Guria are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In October 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 51% in Guria and by 27.2% in Adjara; The number of international visits to Georgia grew significantly over the period of 2015 to 2019, and this growth was mostly attributable to an increase in the number of visits for holiday, leisure and recreation purposes. However, due to safety concerns arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of visits in this category has been declining significantly, and this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future; The number of business or professional visits, despite contributing only a modest share of the total visits, also registered significant growth, as it grew by an average of 11% year-on-year from 2015 to 2019.

“The Great Lockdown”, referring to the period in which COVID-19 containment measures were put in place worldwide, has had a significant toll on the global economy. In the specific case of Ukraine, even though the country entered the crisis in better macroeconomic condition than in previous global crisis in 2008, its economy is still expected to be hit hard. In this issue, we provide an overview of the impacts of the ongoing pandemic on the Ukrainian economy that are already visible and try to supply an economic forecast for the country for the remainder of 2020 and for 2021, looking at the performance of each economic sector in the process.  

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Georgian economic climate did not change significantly, compared to the previous quarter. In this period, Georgian economists assessed Georgia’s present economic situation negatively. The assessment of present economic situation in this quarter slightly improved compared to the third quarter of 2020, but worsened compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months was also assessed negatively by Georgian economists. Furthermore, expectations for the next six months deteriorated slightly compared to both the third quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2020.

This paper concentrates on the production and post-production (of audiovisual content) value chains within the creative industries sector and aims to facilitate dialogue between private and public sectors on the most critical policy/regulatory challenges. The paper is developed by PMCG under the USAID Economic Security Program.   

The COVID-19 pandemic, and the ensuing economic shock, has prompted governments all around the globe to act swiftly and decisively to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the crisis. Each country has responded in its own way, and it is useful to look at these different responses to identify good practices. In this issue, we look broadly at countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and present three case studies of Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia respectively, including an analysis of the fiscal measures these countries have taken and an overview of the impacts of the pandemic.

The number of international travelers declined by 94.2% in September compared to the same period of 2019, while the number of inter- national visitors fell by 93.6% and the number of international tourists fell by 92.2%. Georgia experienced a fall of more than 90% in the number of foreign arrivals every month since April, compared to the corresponding period of 2019; In the first three quarters of 2020, revenues from international travel amounted to US$499 mln, which is 81% lower than for the same period of 2019; The price changes in Adjara, Guria, and Samtskhe-Javakheti are the most representative of tourism’s decline. In September 2020, the year over year Hotel Price Index decreased by 39.2% in Guria, 33.4% in Adjara, and 24.3% in Samtskhe-Javakheti; Looking at countries that have reopened tourism quickly with no restrictions, some have managed to recover a sizable portion of their arrivals, such as Albania, while others, like North Macedonia and Serbia, have not been so successful. Indeed, the decrease in the number of arrivals to the latter two countries has been comparable to that in Georgia, which has maintained significant travel restrictions.

In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 124 GEL per night in September 2020, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 221 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 70 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in September 2020 was 335 GEL per night. In Samtskhe-Javakheti, the average price was 440 GEL, followed by Guria - 433 GEL, Tbilisi - 430 GEL and Kakheti – 345 GEL.

In the very first edition of PMC Research Center Ukraine’s Economic Outlook and Indicators, we present an overview and analysis of the dynamics of Ukraine’s main economic indicators over the last decade, such as GDP, inflation, exchange rates, foreign trade, FDI, and remittances.

In August 2020, the number of employees receiving salaries recovered almost fully and stood at only 1% less than the corresponding month of last year; During the period of January-August 2020, the month of May saw the largest drop in the number of employees receiving salaries (a dip of 9% or 74 951), compared to the corresponding period of 2019; The month of April experienced the biggest decline in the number of employees for four out of the five higher-income categories, with the highest decline (23%) recorded in the number of people earning more than GEL 4800 per month; The total average monthly earnings of employees in Q2 of 2020 amounted to GEL 1150.1, which represents a 3% decrease compared to Q2 of 2019; According to the data obtained from HR.ge and Jobs.ge, the drop in demand for labor started in March and reached its peak in April, when HR.ge and Jobs.ge experienced an 87% and 78% year over year (YoY) decline in new vacancies posted, respectively. The YoY growth rates started recovering towards the baseline in May, but then registered a significant decline in August.