Reshaping Maritime Trade in the Black Sea: The Effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, maritime trade flows in the Black Sea were significantly reshaped. As the war continued, developments affecting the trade in the Black Sea changed, underscoring the importance of thoroughly analyzing how the region has adapted to such disruptions. This publication builds upon the previous edition, which was released shortly after the outbreak of the war. Now, three years later, our focus shifts to examining how trade dynamics, particularly maritime trade in the Black Sea region, have evolved during this period.

Key insights include:

• Upon the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, port calls in Ukraine and Russia dropped sharply, while other Black Sea countries briefly benefited from redirected trade flows. By late 2023, port calls in Ukraine had gradually recovered, supported by new shipping routes through Romania and Bulgaria. However, serious threats to commercial shipping remained.
• Ukraine’s maritime exports and imports fell sharply in 2022, with a slow recovery in imports in 2023. In Russia, maritime imports declined, while exports initially increased in 2022, possibly due to sanctions being ineffective. However, as the sanctions intensified, exports also fell significantly the following year.